Chances of El Nino high

THE chances of El Niño forming this year has increased, with some parts of the country expected to have less rainfall over the next three months, according to the National Weather Services (NWS).
“The rainfall forecast for July, August and September shows a below-normal rainfall scenario for the Highlands, Gulf, Central and the New Guinea Islands region inclusive of Bougainville,” a NWS statement said.
Mamose, Western, Oro, and Milne Bay are expected to receive above-normal rainfall over the same period.
It said that the oceanic and atmospheric indicators through the sea surface temperatures and some atmospheric indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index had shifted towards an El Niño state.
Wind, cloud and broad-scale pressure-patterns indicate that the Pacific Ocean and atmosphere are yet to be fully coupled, or to reinforce each other.
“The marrying or coupling has to happen before the birth of an El Niño is realised,” it added.
“When an El Niño is formed, it can last for many months.”
The NWS pointed out that in Papua New Guinea, El Niño “usually but not always brings below average rainfall to much of the country, which in extreme cases, can lead to severe droughts and frosts in the highlands”.
The critical drought areas are Enga and Southern Highlands.
East and West New Britain and parts of West Sepik continue to be a high-risk levels for the past three months, it added.
The NWS added that El Niño in the Pacific was related to the east-west movement of warm water (SST) in the Tropics.
“When warm SST anomalies are closer to Australia, PNG receives above normal rainfall (La Niña).
“And when cooler SST anomalies are present closer to Australia, PNG receives below normal rainfall (El Niño). And in a neutral year, PNG receives normal rainfall,” the statement said.